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Bitcoin looking very bearish: Tone Vays

Bitcoin’s negative price action this year is no secret. According to popular technical analyst Tone Vays, bitcoin’s price does not look good going forward – at least for a while.

Tone Vays Analysis

Expert technical analyst Tone Vays jumped on a YouTube video today to analyze bitcoin’s price action. According to Vays, the next few months of price action for bitcoin look bleak at best.

Looking at the monthly Bitcoin chart, (where each candle portrays one month of price action) Vays speculated on price, with the comparison to bitcoin’s last bear market end back in 2015.

Image Courtesy: YouTube.com (black circle on the bottom left is 2015 and the black circle in the upper right is 2018 – added by CI author for reader clarity)

As seen on the chart image above, last month’s red candle did not end with a long bottom wick, breaching a satisfactory level to the downside, as was seen in 2015’s candle.

Tone Vays noted that price last month did not breach the fifty-month moving average (50 MA). “It makes me believe that this big down candle [upper right black circle in image] is not, and I repeat, not the equivalent of this big down candle [lower left black circle in image],” Vays said.

Vays observation and analysis here is an indication that bitcoin has possibly not yet found an ultimate price bottom or reversal.

Referencing this month’s red candle, Vays mentioned that buying pressure did not follow last month’s big red candle, indicating further downward momentum ahead instead of a price reversal.

Vays then went into several interesting scenarios going forward for bitcoin. In his most optimal scenario, he stated, “this is going to sound very very ugly right now.”

His optimal scenario includes a few more months of price consolidation in the $3,000 price range. This would involve price staying slightly above the fifty-month moving average until March of next year, ending the month in the $3,150 range.

“And then in April, have a gigantic drop down to approximately below $1,500, in early April. But by end of April, be back above the fifty-month moving average, creating this giant hammer candle.”

(A hammer candle is a candlestick with a small body and very large bottom wick. This type of candle can indicate capitulation, market bottoms, and buying pressure, depending on where the candle occurs in any given chart.)

This could be a more positive situation than if prices were to linger under the fifty-month moving average for a prolonged time period.  After April in his mentioned scenario, Vays sees bitcoin returning to the $5,000 price range and higher by the end of 2019, with the possibility of breaking all-time highs in 2020.

Vays also detailed other chart time frames, such as weekly and daily bitcoin charts, explaining those time frames to look very bearish as well.

Notably, Vays has provided some accurate analysis in the past.

Tone Vays also won a $10,000 bet against ex-pro poker player turned crypto influencer Doug Polk earlier this year.

It is important to note that nothing is ever certain. Technical analysis can be a great way to analyze price action and make possible projections for the future. However, no one knows what will happen for certain until it happens.

*Nothing written or said is financial advice in any way. Writing about price levels is purely speculation, subject to speculatory bias. Nothing written is any kind of advice whatsoever. Proceed only at your own risk.

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The above is to be considered opinion and not investment advice in any way, as an unbiased media, no one interferes with the Editorial content of CryptoInsider.com, writers have freedom to choose their own direction, members of Crypto Insider do not participate in trades based on content.

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ETH: 0xDf4d2529D777a80717E85Ed2269830ad6265951B
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Benjamin Pirus
Benjamin Pirus
BJ is a full time writer, editor, and trader in the cryptocurrency space. He has written many professional articles for numerous ICOs, news sites, and other interested parties in the crypto space. He is also a trader, staying up to date with the crypto markets constantly, and dabbling in traditional financial market trading occasionally.


  1. I’m looking at global or otherwise

    1% owns 90% of the BTCs and they regulate the market.
    They bought the BTCs at € 1 sale for € 15,000, and this caused 99% of people to lose.
    At the moment, those who have the majority of BTC’s capital moved from bulls to bears.
    At the moment, we have bear on both sides, so things have stopped the main problem, which resulted in huge losses of the majority.

    We can conclude that everything will depend how will the majority owners of the BTCs decide. They sold quite a few BTCs and got big money, and they bought a lot, when the down ward trend was so, that they were twice won and they were the winners of the first round.

    Important second round: The BTC price will depend on 1% of BTCs owners to where they will allow the lowest BTC price to revive the market and the entry of new bulls for re-growth.
    My opinion is that in such a large loss, 99% of the investments in the real price is a real price below 1000 €. It is said that financial funds will enter, but they probably will not have the interest to buy expensive if someone bought for € 1 and sold for € 15,000

    Year 2019 will be the year of reality and decisions how to proceed. We anticipate that 1% of owners are also included in the stock exchange and have a certain source of financing in such a way that they do not want to go anywhere so the BTC will fluctuate between € 2,000 and € 3,000, but they will be regulated by 1% of the owners of 90% of BTCs.

    My estimate is that if they want to grove the market and gain momentum in order to enter the new bulls, the BTC’s price must go to the price of the purchasing power of natural persons, which in my opinion is 1000 € where by no one is expected to grow high as it was Jan 2018 when the price was 15,000 € It is not realistic to expect 99% of the majority who have earned the benefits in such a short time period of big losses.


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