Ethereum News
Risks behind Ethereum ETF outflows and Solana rotation
BlackRock leads the Ethereum ETF outflows
BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) accounted for $299 million of the $320 million in outflows recorded between October 12 and October 16, which represents 93.4% of the total Ethereum ETF outflows for that week. These outflows wiped out 62% of the 2026 inflows that the funds collected by their September 28 peak. I see a significant rotation as Ethereum’s price dropped 18.9% this year compared to Bitcoin’s 6.2% decline. While Solana ETFs attracted $1.45 billion in net inflows despite a 57% price crash, Ethereum ETFs saw $578.9 million in net outflows through October 8. The eight-session withdrawal streak began on September 29 and resulted in $641.3 million in cumulative withdrawals. On October 8 alone, BlackRock’s ETHA lost $71.1 million of the $72.54 million in total daily outflows. This follows a larger single-day outflow of $201.9 million on October 6. Bitwise Solana ETF (BSOL) drew $44.48 million in inflows during the same week that Ethereum funds faced pressure.
The divergence between the two ecosystems suggests that institutional money is shifting toward Solana. Solana’s cumulative inflows reached $1.45 billion, and its performance remains strong even as its token price fell 57%. Ethereum’s struggle continues as the asset price sat near $2,433 on October 19. In contrast, the total net assets of Solana ETFs surged past $502.04 million. Ethereum funds are losing capital while Solana funds gain it.
Technical resistance and support levels
Ethereum trades at $1,920 with daily volume between $12 billion and $19 billion. The price is testing resistance after a rebound from the $1,700 level in July 2026. Bulls must drive a daily close above $2,000 to target $2,100 and $2,250. The current price sits near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,925. If the price fails to hold $1,800, the bearish structure remains. I note the daily relative strength index (RSI) is at 62, which indicates momentum without overbought conditions. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator shows a bullish crossover, although a bearish crossover below $2,000 would indicate consolidation. Traders should watch the 100-day EMA at approximately $1,950 to $1,970.
| Level | Technical significance |
|---|---|
| $2,400 – $2,450 | Previous supply and long-term target |
| $2,250 – $2,300 | Medium-term resistance |
| $2,015 | 61.8% Fibonacci level |
| $1,940 – $2,000 | Immediate resistance |
| $1,850 – $1,880 | First support after a pullback |
| $1,780 – $1,820 | Short-term support |
| $1,680 – $1,720 | Medium-term support |
The price must reclaim $2,000 to invalidate the recent downtrend. A breakdown below $1,680 would indicate that bears have regained control of the market. I see the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages as reclaimed support for now. However, the weekly trend remains neutral to bearish until a weekly close stays above $2,250.
Structural weakness and macro correlations
Ethereum carries a 0.78 correlation to the Nasdaq 100, while Bitcoin maintains a 0.55 correlation. This higher correlation increases volatility when technology stocks fall, such as during the US-Iran macro shock in May and June 2026. Ethereum also lacks the corporate treasury floor seen in Bitcoin, which has over 100 public companies holding it as a reserve. Layer 2 networks like Base and Arbitrum continue to divert fee revenue from the mainnet. Coinbase’s Base alone removed approximately $50 billion from the market capitalization of Ethereum by capturing fees. You should watch if these fee-revenue diversions eventually weaken the Ethereum burn mechanism. Ethereum currently controls 68% of global DeFi total value locked at $55.6 billion, but this revenue is fractured across over 20 Layer 2 networks. The Federal Reserve also influences these risk assets, as Treasury yields fell sharply on October 22 after the Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% in September.
The lack of a treasury demand mechanism makes Ethereum more sensitive to macro shifts. Bitcoin has a natural floor because companies like Strategy hold large amounts of the asset. Ethereum does not have an equivalent structure to absorb selling pressure during market downturns. This structural asymmetry favors Bitcoin during periods of high interest rates.
Ecosystem competition and the Glamsterdam delay
The delay of the Glamsterdam upgrade to Q3 2026 removes a major technical catalyst for the network. This upgrade targets 10,000 transactions per second and a 78.6% reduction in gas fees. In the meantime, Solana developers are building ephemeral rollups via MagicBlock to achieve 30 millisecond latencies for real-time applications. These rollups use the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) to process transactions in environments that can be spun up on-demand. This technology allows for the inclusion of high-precision clocks and AI oracles within the SVM. MagicBlock plans to ship Phase 1 of these ephemeral rollups at the end of Q2 2025. A permissionless version is planned for the end of 2025 once the dynamic fraud-proof architecture is ready.
Solana’s approach uses the SVM to maintain composability with existing smart contracts. These instances can be deployed close to users to reduce latency for gaming and finance applications. This method uses a bisection game and verification in a zkSVM to ensure state integrity. Can Ethereum maintain its dominance if specialized environments like Solana’s SVM offer superior responsiveness for gaming and finance?
