The people shaping Bitcoin’s nation-state adoption: Bukele versus Milei

Nayib Bukele passed a law in 2021 making bitcoin legal tender in El Salvador, a move that defined his presidency. Javier Milei won the 2023 Argentine presidential election with the La Libertad Avanza coalition, entering office as a candidate outside the ideologies that dominated the previous two decades. These two leaders represent distinct paths for state-backed cryptocurrency adoption. Bukele’s approach is centralized and aggressive, while Milei’s entry into power signals a shift toward libertarian economic policies. I see their strategies as fundamentally different responses to similar regional pressures. Both men have leveraged political momentum to implement radical changes, but the mechanisms differ significantly.

Bukele’s authoritarian crypto bet

Bukele’s administration has used emergency powers since 2022 to suspend key civil liberties, including due process. This security regime allows arrests without warrants, even of minors as young as 12, and facilitates mass trials for hundreds of suspects. One in every 57 Salvadorans is now incarcerated, a rate triple that of the United States and the highest in the world. Critics argue this environment stifles dissent, with journalists and NGOs reporting intimidation and surveillance. Despite these concerns, Bukele maintains an approval rating above 90% according to recent polls. His popularity stems from a dramatic drop in homicides, with the official rate falling to 1.9 per 100,000 people in 2024. He promoted plans to build Bitcoin City, aiming to attract tech entrepreneurs and tourists to coastal enclaves like "Bitcoin Beach." The government invested some of the country’s reserves in the cryptocurrency, a gamble that foreign investors and creditors have not received well.

El Salvador remains one of the poorest countries in the western hemisphere, yet Bukele’s brand of "punitive populism" continues to gain traction. His second term tests what happens when a charismatic leader dismantles democratic institutions in pursuit of security and financial innovation. The results have sweeping implications for the region, where other leaders are eager to replicate what many call the Bukele miracle. Ecuador and Honduras are building mass prisons inspired by his model, showing how his influence extends beyond crypto. Whether this sustainability can last is unclear, especially as Salvadoran concerns shift from security to the economy. Some close to him worry about losing support if the economic situation worsens further.

Milei’s libertarian ascent

Javier Milei’s victory in 2023 ended a period where Peronism and Kirchnerism held power in four out of five elections. The period began with the recovery from the 2001 crisis, which left more than half the population below the poverty line. During the Kirchner years, GDP grew from $97 billion in 2002 to over $329 billion in 2007, and unemployment dropped from 17.9%. However, inflation rose to an estimated 15 or 20%, despite official statistics showing lower rates. In 2015, Mauricio Macri won the presidency, initiating a complete change in policy orientation. He deregulated the financial market and reduced export taxes on soy and minerals, leading to a slight GDP increase but also higher external debt. By 2018, capital flight caused the peso to devalue by 135%, forcing the government to negotiate a $55 billion loan with the IMF.

Milei’s rise contrasts sharply with the interventionist models of his predecessors. While Bukele uses state power to enforce compliance, Milei advocates for minimal state interference. Argentina’s economy is the second-largest in South America, and it is a member of G-15 and G20. The country claims sovereignty over the Falkland Islands and parts of Antarctica, reflecting its status as a regional power. Milei’s coalition, La Libertad Avanza, represents a break from the traditional political landscape. Voters who were frustrated with lawlessness and economic instability turned to him as an alternative. His approach suggests a potential alignment with free-market principles that could reshape how Argentina interacts with global financial systems, including digital currencies.

The comparison reveals two different experiments in governance. Bukele has already implemented concrete steps with bitcoin, such as making it legal tender and investing state reserves. Milei’s platform emphasizes reducing the state’s role, which may create a different environment for cryptocurrency adoption. I find Bukele’s direct involvement more risky given the human rights concerns surrounding his security crackdown. The question remains whether Milei’s economic reforms will lead to a stable framework for digital assets, or if the lack of state intervention will leave the market to its own devices. We do not know if Argentina will follow a path similar to El Salvador’s explicit legal integration.