The people shaping Bitcoin’s October 2026 mining decentralization

Concentration and the risk of a single pool

Foundry USA controls 37% of the network hashashrate. AntPool follows with 14%. These two entities produce more than half of all Bitcoin blocks. This concentration creates a structural risk for the network. In 2025, Winter Storm Fern caused a 60% drop in the hashashrate of Foundry USA. This storm idled 200 EH/s of computational power in the United States. Average block production times rose to 12 minutes because fewer miners competed to solve blocks. This event demonstrates how concentrated infrastructure reacts to weather. If a single pool reaches 50% dominance, the DOJ could argue it holds market power in block-production services. Large holders like BlackRock or ARK might publish research notes about decentralization, while the DHS may label a dominant pool a Systemically Important Decentralised Infrastructure Provider. Bitmain and AntPool have previously pledged not to exceed 39% hashashrate to avoid such risks. Smaller pools like Ultimus Pool and BrainsPool hold 1% and 0.8% of the hashashrate.

The market remains concentrated as four operators decide the contents of roughly 70% of all Bitcoin blocks. These entities include Foundry USA, AntPool, F2Pool, and SpiderPool. While Bitmain and Antpool offer flexible payout models, the concentration of power remains a concern for many. Diversification into smaller pools or hardware makers like MicroBT provides a hedge against concentration. Some states could even condition mining tax abatements on joining decentralised pool cooperatives with share caps. This concentration creates a single point of failure that could trigger a Black Swan event if a major pool fails.

Stratum V2 and the slow adoption of Job Declaration

Seven major pools joined the Stratum V2 working group in May 2026. This group includes Foundry USA, AntPool, F2Pool, SpiderPool, MARA Pool, Block Inc., and DMND. These entities hold 75% of the global hashashrate. Only Braiins Pool and DMND run Stratum V2 with Job Declaration in production. This production deployment covers only 3% to 5% of the network. Jan Capek and the Braiins team drive the adoption of Stratum V2 to let miners choose which transactions enter their blocks. The significant gap between the May 2026 announcement that seven major pools would support the protocol and the current 3% to 5% deployment rate shows that adoption remains a slow process. This protocol uses an efficient binary communication method and encrypted connections to stop hashashrate-hijacking attacks. It also reduces stale shares by improving routing. A 1% stale rate on a 200 PH/s fleet costs about $28,000 per year. Will the major pools actually deploy the protocol this year?

Miners choose between different payout models to manage their earnings. PPS provides a fixed payment for every valid share, while PPLNS rewards miners based on the most recent shares. FPPS captures more total income because it includes transaction fees in the base payout. This model typically yields 3% to 5% more than PPS. You know that pool assignment is a live, changeable parameter rather than something fixed at signup. Selecting a pool with low latency and low stale rates is vital for profitability. The gap between the May announcement and the deployment remains an underwhelming factor for those seeking decentralization.

Blockstream and the expansion of Bitcoin infrastructure

Adam Back, the CEO of Blockstream, anticipates Bitcoin hitting $100,000 this year. Blockstream recently raised $210 million in Series B funding at a $3.2 billion valuation. The company also acquired Spondoolies. Blockstream and Square Inc launched a solar-powered mining project earlier this year after Square invested $5 million. Back, who invented Hashcash, works on the infrastructure layer for the network. His company, Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, entered an agreement to go public through a merger with Cantor Equity Partners I. This merger involves 30,021 BTC on its balance sheet and up to $1.5 billion in PIPE financing. The Liquid Network, a Blockstream product, ended 2025 with nearly $5 billion in total value locked.

Blockstream develops infrastructure across three areas: consumer self-custody tools like the Jade hardware wallet, enterprise settlement on the Liquid Network, and institutional products. Back remains one of the few people whose contributions to Bitcoin predate the network itself. Satoshi Nakamoto cited Back by name in the white paper regarding the need for a proof-of-work system. Blockstream focuses on providing the infrastructure to enable mass adoption. The company also works on the Bitcoin Clean Energy Initiative to expand the use of renewables in mining.

The migration to AI and energy markets

Mining companies are redirecting electricity to AI data centers to chase better margins. Hut 8 signed a 15-year lease for 352 MW at its Beacon Point campus in Texas. This contract value reaches $19.6 billion. Core Scientific signed 530 MW agreements with AMD. Mining difficulty fell 19.9% from its all-time high over 287 consecutive days. Large AI data centers secure long-term power contracts and pay premium rates. This forces some mining operations to cut capacity or relocate. Riot Platforms leased 191 MW to Anthropic. IREN is building a 200 MW liquid-cooled GPU site with Microsoft. Mining equities gained 56% during early 2026, even as Bitcoin fell 17%.

Electricity costs dictate whether a miner stays profitable. A 15.5 J/TH air-cooled machine breaks even at roughly 10 to 11 cents per kilowatt-hour. A modern 9.45 J/TH hydro machine breaks even at around 17 cents. Preliminary data from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance shows Bitcoin mining’s annualized electricity consumption rose from 138 TWh in June 2024 to around 190 TWh by December 2025. The share of low-carbon energy in the mining mix climbed from 52.4% to 59.4%. Hydropower overtook natural gas as the industry’s single largest energy source. Miners must balance their energy needs against the growing demand from AI firms.