Tone Vays is still bearish and believes that Bitcoin could go down to $1,300, which is the high of December 2013.
Speaking on Ivan on Tech’s Good Morning Crypto Show, he said:
“My worst case scenario target is $1,300. It doesn’t mean that Bitcoin has to get there, but to me $1,300 has been a realistic target for over a year and it remains a realistic target.”
Vays, a former Wall Street analyst who is now a trader and an independent content creator focused on spreading the relevance and importance of blockchain technology, thinks that it’s time to be accumulating even though the price of BTC could have more legs down.
The former VP at JP Morgan Chase admitted he’s vested in the market:
“I’m a little more optimistic, but I also have a significant ‘HODLing’ position, which makes me want to be invested in Bitcoin going to the moon tomorrow.”
The crypto market hasn’t bottomed.
The creator of CryptoSCam, a podcast about the latest scams in the cryptocurrency sphere, is no stranger to predicting the direction in which BTC will move. Back in November 2018, he was able to time the move from $6,000 to $3,000 and recently he was able to call the pump from $3,000 to $5,000. Tone also believes in fundamental analysis and right now it’s telling him that the crypto market hasn’t bottomed.
“My fundamental analysis is very very simple, Bitcoin is a legitimate asset that has a future, all other cryptos do not. I don’t believe they are legitimate and I don’t believe they have a future. So, when I see altcoins pump harder with the Bitcoin rally, it tells me that the market has not bottomed and that the bear market is still with us.”
He compares the current state of the market to the Dotcom Bubble, which was a period of excessive speculation in the U.S. technology stock equity valuation:
“The NASDAQ fell from an all time high of $5,000 in the year 2000 and did not recover until 2015. It took 15 years to recover in price because the stupidity of buying dotcoms that didn’t have a company, revenue, or any money did not come back but it looks like the stupidity of buying altcoins is still coming back.”
For now Tone Vays remains a medium-term bear and will turn bullish when he sees BTC dominance go significantly higher, or what he refers as “Bitcoin decoupling,” which is when the “King of Cryptos” goes up while other coins go down, stay down, or go up very slowly; until that happens, he anticipates lower prices.
Where is Bitcoin going?
Although Vays believes that an ETF won’t be approved any time soon because the Security and Exchange Commission of the United States will have control of the market valuation discovery and every exchange must be under its scrutiny, he sees Bitcoin as a global force to be reckoned with.
“It’s going to play a significant role. The fiat world will continue to devalue their currencies and people will go into Bitcoin. The European common currency is likely to eventually break up into its components. The hunt for taxes, money laundering, shutting down of tax havens, and the Swiss accounts no longer being secret are part of the move to eliminate cash, which plays right into further Bitcoin adoption.”
For Tone the next most reasonable bull run could take BTC to $50,000, and the upcoming halving could cause a push up in the market valuation of this asset 6 months prior the event. But in the meantime, he’s looking for an opportunity to short the market. Mr. Vays thinks that Bitcoin is still going lower, as he stated, “sub $3,000 prices are more likely than above $10,000 prices at this point in time.”