Bitcoin’s $61,000 floor and the LTH accumulation spike

Bitcoin prices dropped to $61,300 earlier this year and marked a 30% decline since the start of 2026. I track the long-term holder supply, which reached 16.3 million BTC. This cohort, defined as investors holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, increased its total holdings from 14.12 million BTC following the record high price of $126,198 in October 2025. In the last month, the long-term holder supply rose by 200,000 BTC. This accumulation follows a period where long-term holders offloaded $2.4 billion in early June after remaining largely dormant from February through April.

I watch the $60,000 level.

The realized price floor

The market price sits above the long-term holder realized price of $49,737. It stays below the short-term holder realized price of $69,007. I focus on the $53,000 to $54,000 zone because this area marks full capitulation. A drop below $58,300 pushes prices toward this realized price floor.

The $60,000 to $63,000 range matters. It contains the 20-day VWMA near $61,363 and a major psychological level. If the price falls below $61,300, the next test occurs at $60,000. Will buyers defend this zone?

The bulls need $65,150.

Wallet accumulation and outflows

Small wallets and mid-sized entities holding 100 to 1,000 BTC lead the recent accumulation, though the largest whale cohort of over 10,000 BTC remains closer to neutral with a reading of 0.4 to 0.5. You know the drill: Bitcoin price strength requires volume. I see that 10.83 million BTC sit in loss positions, while 9.22 million BTC remain in profit. This distribution of underwater assets creates heavy resistance during any recovery. I find the weak ETF demand frustrating. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $50 million in outflows on Wednesday.

I see the volume.

The 24-hour trading volume reached $21.27 billion, a 22% increase from the previous day. The 14-day RSI sits at 50.36 and places the market in neutral territory. I see that Bitcoin holds $60,000 to stay bullish.

Long-term holders offloaded $2.4 billion in early June. The current price of $62,836 remains below the 50-day EMA of $65,143 and the 200-day EMA of $74,705, and suggests that the market structure remains corrective despite the recent June rebound. I would skip the idea that this is a full reversal.

The 200-week moving average sits in the $62,000 to $63,000 range and provides a long-term trend line. A weekly close below $58,300 indicates that bears regained control. I notice the 200-week moving average acted as a bottom in 2015, 2018, and 2022. This level is a key area for buyers to watch.

The market is wide.

Technical signals and macro pressure

I monitor the MVRV ratio to gauge market stress. In the October 2025 peak, the MVRV reached 2.29, while previous peaks reached much higher levels. The short-term holder MVRV dipped to around 0.82 in the wake of the June selloff. The price fell to $57,950 on July 1, 2026, and I notice the market is caught between resistance near $63,350 and support near $60,000.

Macro conditions affect the price. Real yields rose from 1.3% in early May to 1.98% in early July. This rise in real yields often hurts non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. The US-Iran ceasefire helped Brent crude fall back near $70 as of early July 2026, which provides some relief. The Fed held rates at 3.50 – 3.75% in its June meeting, a range that has persisted since the beginning of 2026.

I see the 200-week moving average.

I notice that Bitcoin whales and sharks were realizing losses of about $337 million per day in the first quarter of 2026, which totaled roughly $30.91 billion in realized losses for 2026 so far. Such massive selling, including the $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales authorized by Strategy on June 29, indicates that large investors expected much higher prices.

Can the $60,000 level hold?