Bitcoin faces $68,000 cost basis floor as liquidity rises

The cost basis band and current price levels

Bitcoin trades near $68,800. This price is 44 to 45 percent below the October 2025 peak of $126,000. Glassnode identifies a dense cost basis zone between $66,900 and $70,600. The True Market Mean is $80,200. The Realized Price is $55,800. The cost basis for bitcoins aged six to twelve months is $86,700. The one-to-two-year group cost basis is $100,000. Bitcoin maintains a position near $68,800 after the market experienced a series of sharp declines that pushed the price down to $60,000 in February 2026 following the massive peak of $126,000 in late 2025. On October 6, 2026, Bitcoin settled at $85,582, a 0.18 percent decrease. The session high was $86,660 and the session low was $85,095. Short liquidations stack up at $86,136, which is 0.6 percent above the price, totaling $2.44 million. Long liquidations concentrate at $83,198, which is 2.8 percent below the price, totaling $3.1 million.

The market faces a tug of war between different price levels. The total market capitalization of all digital assets is $2.85538 trillion. Bitcoin dominance is 59.11 percent. Ethereum dominance is 11.18 percent. The Fear and Greed Index closed at 73.

Long term holder supply trends

Long term holder selling volume dropped from 105,900 BTC to 21,700 BTC. Long term holders stopped net selling in July 2025. The 30 day sum of long term holder supply change moves closer to neutral. This shift means the market absorbs fewer coins from the older cohort. When long term holders slow distribution, the price becomes more sensitive to changes in demand from spot buyers and derivatives positioning. Most current Bitcoin ownership remains with smaller investors, though whales buy during dips. This behavior creates a supply squeeze as older coins move out of long term holder status less frequently.

The supply dynamics influence price volatility. In the second half of 2025, the long term holder supply line trended lower. This followed a period in early July 2025 where green bars dominated, showing net growth in long term holder supply. From mid-July 2025 onward, the chart showed persistent red bars. Bitcoin price swung through several peaks and pullbacks during that time. This included a sharp drop in late November 2025. The market is in a consolidation phase near support. In early February 2026, Bitcoin hit a low of $60,000. This was the fifth consecutive month of losses for Bitcoin since October 2025.

M2 money supply and liquidity growth

The U.S. M2 money supply is $22.45 trillion. This is a 4.3 percent increase year over year. Rising money supply historically supports Bitcoin. Bitcoin follows global liquidity with a 10 week lag. During the pandemic, M2 jumped from $15 trillion to $21 trillion. Bitcoin saw a rally to $69,000 in November 2021 during that period. In late 2025, Bitcoin surged to $124,000, supported by liquidity growth. The market saw a 6 month phase of decline or sideways movement in early 2026 even as liquidity rose. This shows a decoupled relationship compared to previous cycles.

Institutional investors hold less than 5 percent of all spot Bitcoin ETF assets. Pension funds and endowments own a small portion of these assets. The remaining 85 to 95 percent of ownership is held by hedge funds, wealth management firms, or retail clients. Public companies worldwide hold 859,000 BTC, which is 4 percent of the total 21 million bitcoin supply. These companies have increased their holdings by 120 percent since July last year. Global net inflows into crypto exchange-traded products hit $4 billion last week. The State of Wisconsin Investment Board, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala sovereign wealth fund, and Millennium Management are among the institutional investors that made public their investments in crypto ETFs.

Market volatility and structural support

Bitcoin entered a bearish phase after peaking in October 2025. The price fell to $60,000 in early February 2026. The market experienced liquidations exceeding $19 billion on October 10. On October 6, 2026, the S&P 500 gained 0.58 percent to 7,818.93. Gold added 0.87 percent to $4,192.90. The U.S. 10-year yield dropped 0.79 percent to 5.27 percent. The DXY slipped 0.32 percent to 101.85. On October 6, MNT fell 7.1 percent and UNI dropped 5.5 percent. DOGE fell 1.93 percent to $0.09388. SOL rose 0.66 percent to $120.97. ZRO surged 7.3 percent, RENDER gained 6.1 percent, and OKB added 5.9 percent.

You should watch the $49,000 structural support level. Analysts say a drop below $90,000 could put corporate treasuries underwater. The market debates a path back toward the $80,200 mean area versus a slide toward the $55,800 realized-price region. Will the $66,900 level hold? Bitcoin trades at $68,800, which is 12.6 percent below the $80,000 mark. Net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs totaled $2 billion over the last 3 weeks. The total crypto market capitalization is $3.8 trillion.