Bitcoin News
Bitcoin halving aftermath: miner capitulation and efficiency trends
The reality of mining capitulation
The Bitcoin network hashrate fell 15% from the October peak to roughly 977 exahashes per second, a trend that shows miners are switching off machines because profitability is deteriorating following the halving. This decline shows that mining power is contracting from the 1.1 zettahashes per second recorded in October. The Hash Ribbon indicator inverted on November 29, which occurred shortly after Bitcoin hit a bottom near $80,000. This inversion indicates that miners are forced to sell bitcoin to fund their operations, which adds supply pressure to the market. I see that VanEck researchers view this miner stress as a contrarian signal because historical data shows that periods of sustained stress precede renewed price momentum. In the first half of June, over 150 exahashes exited the network. The difficulty adjustment responded to this loss by dropping 10% on June 14, before it rose 7% on June 27. I find that the 30-day moving average of hashrate has not yet climbed back above the 60-day average. The Hash Ribbon suggests the worst of the capitulation may be nearing an end once this crossover occurs.
Hashprice floors and the AI migration
The global hashprice fell to a historical low of $27.66 per PH/s/day in June 2026. This level is below the corporate breakeven threshold of $30.00 to $33.00 per PH/s/day for standard mid-tier operations. I observe that major operators like Riot Platforms, Core Scientific, and MARA Holdings are converting their electrical grid connections to serve the Artificial Intelligence and high-performance computing sectors. This migration moves power away from the blockchain because enterprise AI firms require immense power capacities for training machine learning models. The network difficulty dropped 14% from the 2026 peak, which was a response to the reduction in raw computational power from 155.97 trillion in November 2025 to 126.23 trillion.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| June 2026 Hashprice Low | $27.66 per PH/s/day |
| Corporate Breakeven | $30.00 to $33.00 per PH/s/day |
| Difficulty Drop from 2026 Peak | 14% |
I find that the decision to use power for AI instead of mining is a structural change. Companies upgrade data center infrastructure to support liquid-cooled GPU architectures to get predictable, fiat-denominated revenue. The difficulty reduction acts as an economic stabilizer that allows surviving miners to capture a larger share of daily block rewards.
Efficiency separates the survivors
CleanSpark produced 671 bitcoin in May 2026 and maintained an average operating hashrate of 46.2 EH/s. I note their peak efficiency for the deployed fleet reached 16.07 J/Th. MARA Holdings produced 2,247 BTC in Q1 2026 and has 1.8 GW of power under contract. I find the disparity in efficiency between companies to be the defining factor for survival in this market. Trump American Bitcoin reported a $45.2 million loss in Q1 2026 because its fleet efficiency is 18 J/TH. This company also saw revenue drop 41% year-over-year while its operational hashrate fell from 10 EH/s to 7.2 EH/s. They carry more than $200 million in debt from facility expansions in Texas and Wyoming. Marathon Digital maintains a superior efficiency of 14 J/TH. I see that the capital intensive nature of this industry favors those with the lowest energy costs.
| Company | Operational Hashrate | Fleet Efficiency |
|---|---|---|
| CleanSpark | 46.2 EH/s | 16.07 J/Th |
| MARA Holdings | 72.2 EH/s | Not stated |
| Trump American Bitcoin | 7.2 EH/s | 18 J/TH |
| Marathon Digital | Not stated | 14 J/TH |
CleanSpark deployed 224,473 units as of May 31, 2026. Their total bitcoin holdings reached 13,470 as of May 31. MARA Holdings acquired Long Ridge Energy & Power for $1.5 billion in April 2026. This deal included a 505 MW combined-cycle gas power plant.
Estimating the cycle bottom
The current cycle drawdown has reached 50% since the October 2025 high. Galaxy analysts suggest the price bottom for this cycle will land between $40,000 and $46,000 before the end of 2026. I see that the 500-day rule used by analysts like Crypto Rover places a new accumulation window near November 30, 2026. You know the basics of these cycles, but the current volatility remains high. The Bitcoin price is currently trading at $62,675, which is a drop of more than 50% from its October 2025 record. I observe that the MVRV value peaked at only 2.29 during the October 2025 high. The 2024 cycle top was $126,296 on October 6, 2025, which arrived 535 days after the April 2024 halving. Will the 500-day rule predict the next floor?
