Bitcoin News
Bitcoin’s October 2026 correction: five myths vs facts
Bitcoin price struggles near $67,000 resistance
Bitcoin trades at $67,855, showing a 4.00% recovery over the last 24 hours after it lost 30% of its value from the October highs. This price movement follows a period where the asset fell from its higher levels. I see the 50-month exponential moving average at $65,768. The monthly RSI stays at 44.34. This value is below the neutral 50 level but remains above the oversold zone. Support is at $63,761 based on the weekly 200-period moving average. If Bitcoin falls below $57,000, it faces $53,000, $49,000, and $45,000. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is at $57,825. Each bull phase lasted roughly 36 months before a reversal. Corrections typically last 12 months. I observe that the current higher-degree blue wave four unfolding means the correction is not finished. The price is also caught in a tight range between the mid-$60,000s and a resistance cluster at $69,000 to $70,000. This resistance includes specific levels at $69,172, $69,205, and $69,312.
The market is currently testing the strength of its support levels. A break above the resistance could improve the weekly structure, but renewed weakness toward $57,000 would strengthen the risk of a deeper move. I see the MACD death cross at -329.46, which points to further pressure toward the lower band support at $62,689.84.
MVRV and realized losses signal stress
On-chain indicators show the market is under stress. The MVRV ratio is in the 0 to 10% percentile. This means most holders have minimal unrealized profits or losses. Coin Metrics reports the MVRV ratio reached 0.88 following the recent sell-off from the $60,000 high. Historically, MVRV levels below 1.0 preceded buying opportunities. In 2018, the MVRV reached 4, and in 2014, it reached 6 before bear markets began. Realized losses since the October top total $174 billion. This figure is lower than the $211 billion in realized losses from the 2022 bear market. I conclude the market needs more volatility to reach true capitulation. Retail investors attempt to buy every dip, while institutions sell into these rallies.
The divergence between price and realized losses is telling. The market cap is higher than in 2022, but the USD losses have not yet reached the previous record. This suggests that a fresh round of loss-making exits might enter the market. I see that retail conviction remains remarkably high, which casts doubt on whether the current price is a reliable bottom.
ETF flows show institutional volatility
Institutional demand shows significant volatility. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.72 billion last week. This is the second-largest weekly withdrawal on record. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $1.337 billion in net outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC saw $202 million in net outflows. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT saw $35.05 million in net inflows. The total net asset value for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is $75.12 billion, which accounts for 6.08% of the total market capitalization for the entire Bitcoin network. Cumulative net inflows for all products are at $55 billion, a retreat from the $63 billion peak in October 2025. I find the recent August and September buying of $3.8 billion insufficient to offset the latest outflows. You know that institutional flows dictate near-term momentum.
| Product | Ticker | AUM (USD) | Expense Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares Bitcoin Trust | IBIT | $64.80 billion | 0.25% |
| Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund | FBTC | $26 billion | 0.25% |
| Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators | BITQ | $358.78 million | 0.85% |
The movement within specific funds varies. IBIT holds a massive $64.80 billion in assets, but it saw $74,030,000 flow out recently. FBTC is the second largest with $26 billion in assets, but it recorded a $6.8 million outflow in the latest daily data. BITQ has an expense ratio of 0.85% and an AUM of $358.78 million. While some funds like BITB and HODL saw inflows of $15 million and $4 million respectively, Grayscale’s GBTC saw outflows of $30.3 million.
Correction levels for the October window
The correction is not finished. Joao Wedson predicts a possible crash to $50,000 by October 2026. He suggests Bitcoin could reach $140,000 briefly before a reversal. VanEck analysts propose a bull case of $53,000,000 by 2050 if Bitcoin achieves parity with gold. I conclude that the market lacks the necessary capitulation to end the correction. Retail conviction stays high, which suggests the price floor is not yet established.
The current environment relies on whether the market can hold the 200-day-equivalent EMA structure. Failure to hold the $57,000 area would confirm the bear-market pattern seen in previous cycles. I observe that the market remains suspended near the $100,000 threshold in some technical models, though current prices stay much lower. Will Bitcoin hold the $63,761 weekly 200-period moving average through the next month?
