Ethereum price trends: ETF liquidity shifts and resistance levels

The ETF rotation and liquidity shifts

The $118 million withdrawal from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs between September 29 and October 1 broke the seven-day inflow streak that began in late September. This exit follows a $690 million inflow during the week of September 21. During that week, BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) saw $326 million and Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund (FETH) added $174 million. Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust saw $2 million in inflows during that same period. On October 1, Fidelity’s fund saw $24 million in outflows. On September 30, outflows reached $60 million, and on September 29, they hit $3 million. These exits show that institutional conviction in Ethereum has thinned compared to Bitcoin. While Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.4 billion in the week ending September 25, Ethereum investors moved capital toward other assets, which caused the Ethereum inflow streak to end after seven consecutive days of net buying across the entire market. Total net assets in the Ethereum ETF complex reach $17.7 billion. This total includes the cumulative $13.8 billion that investors put into these funds since their launch. I find the institutional rotation into Bitcoin more convincing than this intermittent Ethereum demand. You already know how ETFs work, so the movement of capital between these funds is easy to track.

Resistance at $3,200 and technical targets

Ethereum trades near $3,160 as it approaches the $3,200 to $3,400 resistance zone. Sellers previously defended this ceiling, so a daily close above this range would trigger a move toward the $3,800 to $4,000 area. The price must also clear an intermediate barrier between $3,600 and $3,700 before it reaches that target. The $3,000 CME gap remains a downside risk if the price fails to hold recent gains. If the market loses momentum, ETH could slide toward the $2,800 or $2,700 support regions.

I find the proximity to the $3,000 support level tells a story of caution. The market sentiment moved from Fear, which sat below 40, to Extreme Greed at 80. However, the price action remains caught between these technical levels. I wonder if the $3,200 resistance will hold.

Pectra upgrades and supply dynamics

The Pectra upgrade, which arrived in May 2025, changed the network dynamics. The implementation of the Prague and Electra components increased validator efficiency. This led to negative net issuance in several months during the first half of 2026. A higher portion of the supply is now locked. Approximately 42.7 million ETH, or 35% of the supply, stays in staking protocols. The upgrade increased the maximum effective balance for validators from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH through EIP-7251. This change helps large node operators consolidate their stake. The upgrade also includes EIP-3074, which allows users to pay gas fees in tokens like USDC or DAI. EIP-7594 introduces PeerDAS to optimize Layer-2 solutions. The network also saw $8 trillion in stablecoin transfer volume in the fourth quarter of 2025. The December 2025 Fusaka upgrade introduced PeerDAS to allow validators to sample data rather than download all Layer-2 data. The network also holds $148 billion in stablecoins and $15 billion in active real-world assets.

Exchange flows and corporate stashes

Wintermute moved 61,847 ETH, worth roughly $160.3 million, into Binance and Coinbase. This transfer creates uncertainty for the current price rally. Bitmine holds 5.90 million ETH, which is about 4.9% of the circulating supply. The company reported this amount as of August 30, 2026. Bitmine bought over 1 million ETH from January to early May at a pace of 100,000 ETH per week. The company now holds a stash of 5.28 million ETH. The network also supports $48 billion in DeFi TVL and processes around 2 million transactions per day. I see the large exchange deposits as a weight on the price. I wonder if the accumulation from firms like Bitmine is enough to offset the ETF outflows.