Ethereum eyes $3,200 after Fusaka resistance

Price action and resistance

Ethereum trades at $2,481.50 per ETH today. The market cap is $302,405,864,471 USD. I note the 24-hour trading volume at $8,165,445,314 USD. Bulls face immediate resistance around $2,400 and a psychological level at $2,500. If Ethereum breaks $2,500, the next targets are $2,100, $2,150, and $2,300. Will momentum hold?

The daily chart shows Ethereum testing the top of its July range after rebounding from $1,700. Bulls reclaimed the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, but they face resistance from the 100-day and 200-day averages. I see the 200-day simple moving average at $2,166 and the 50-day average at $1,732. The relative strength index for the daily timeframe is at 62. If the price stays above $1,800, the bullish trend remains.

The price sits near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. I see the 61.8% retracement level at $2,015. A close above $2,000 enables bulls to target $2,100 and $2,250. If the price fails to hold $1,940, it targets $1,850 and $1,800. A breakdown below $1,680 would indicate bears have regained control.

Scaling and network growth

The successful deployment of the Fusaka upgrade on December 3, 2025, aimed to lower node-operating costs and speed up settlement for layer-2 networks while introducing PeerDAS and Verkle Trees to the entire Ethereum ecosystem. This upgrade focuses on backend boosts to enable gains in network scaling since the 2022 Merge. I observe that combined mainnet and layer-2 activity reached a seven-day average of 24,192 transactions per second. This scaling capacity stems from the Dencun upgrade in early 2025. Scaling works.

The Lighter rollup ecosystem accounts for roughly 4,000 transactions per second. I see the total value locked on the network fell 7% over the last 30 days, dropping to 23.3 million ETH. Weekly base layer fees totaled $7.5 million, a 27% drop from the prior month. Ethereum fees stay below Solana’s $9.6 million and Tron’s $14.3 million. I see the exchange reserves of ETH have declined to 15.5M ETH.

Long-term outlook

Institutional demand via spot ETFs provides a price floor. I note the $2,850 level, which you should watch closely, remains a major hurdle. I note the 2026 base case range between $1,680 and $2,090. The 2027 path climbs from $2,000 to $3,100 by December. This recovery depends on firmer network usage.

The 2028 cycle high reaches $3,760 per ETH.

The 2029 period shows a range between $2,880 and $3,830 per ETH. I see the 2030 average at $3,170 per ETH. The Fed rate cuts and renewed spot-ETF inflows act as bullish catalysts. Bitcoin’s strength also influences the price.

If the Federal Reserve signals a definitive return to quantitative easing by September 2026, the resulting liquidity injection could act as a catalyst to push ETH through the $3,000 barrier. I see the 2026 target from Standard Chartered is $4,000. I also note the 2027 target from some models is $4,000.