Bitcoin’s November 2026 $78,000 price: five myths vs facts

Bitcoin in October 2026 Details

Bitcoin trades at $77,835 as of November 1. This follows a 7.3% October decline from the September close of $83,556 to $77,424 on October 31. October 2026 is the weakest October in a ten-year series. Previous Octobers rose eight times out of ten. In years when October finished red, November often followed suit. In 2018, Bitcoin fell another 36.9% in November after a 4.5% October drop. In 2025, it fell 17.5% in November after a 4.0% October dip. The price hit a monthly low of $76,141 on October 30, and the monthly high was $87,249 on 2 October. That same day, the Nasdaq lost 2.86%. On 29 October, attackers drained $6.3 billion from Binance hot wallets. This event coincided with $643 million in outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs on 30 October. The price remains 11.5% lower than the 2025 close of $87,498. It sits about 38% below the all-time high of $126,296 set on 6 October 2025. Ether trades at $2,267 and lost 17.5% in 30 days.

The Fall of Institutional Myths

The theory that Bitcoin hedges inflation failed when the price dropped 50% in early February 2026. While inflation stayed above the 2% target, Bitcoin prices collapsed. NYDIG research shows no reliable correlation between Bitcoin price and inflation measures. Investors viewing Bitcoin as "digital gold" also face a different reality. Gold gained 64% in 2025 and rose 10% in 2026 while Bitcoin plummeted from its $126,296 peak. Gold possesses physical scarcity and industrial uses that Bitcoin lacks. The industry promoted the "digital gold" name to attract investors, but the price divergence proves the label remains aspirational. You already know that volatility defines this market, so look at the specific levels. The 2026 market environment includes a US midterm election year, which mirrors 2018 and 2022. In those years, November ended in the red. In 2018, Bitcoin fell another 36.9% in November after a 4.5% October drop. In 2022, it fell 16.2% in November. The strong Novembers of 2020 and 2024 occurred during presidential election years that also included halving events. The market environment includes stretched equity valuations and geopolitical tension following a rally in 2025.

MicroStrategy Custody and Accumulation

MicroStrategy transferred 58,000 BTC to Fidelity Custody. The decision by MicroStrategy to transfer 58,000 BTC to Fidelity Custody is a $5.1 billion move intended to mitigate risk through multiple security systems and provide operational redundancy. This transfer follows a 10-week accumulation pause. The company bought 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million at an average price of $80,318 per coin. MicroStrategy holds 845,050 BTC with an average cost of $75,412 per coin. The company increased its USD cash by $29 million in the same period. To fund the purchase, the company sold 4,531,421 Class A shares and raised $602.8 million in net proceeds. The company used $151.8 million to repurchase 1,557,177 STRC preferred shares. Another $50.7 million covered STRC dividends and $30 million went to cash. MicroStrategy’s treasury sits 4.9% above cost. The company’s stock is down 39% year-to-date, while the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF dropped 27% over the same period. This performance difference comes from the compression of the market net asset value multiple. At the late-2024 peak, the multiple reached 3.89x, but the current multiple is closer to 1.0x.

Technical Levels and Upcoming Dates

Standard Chartered maintains a $100,000 year-end target for Bitcoin. This target follows two previous downward revisions from $300,000 and $150,000. Traders watch the 200-day moving average at $73,125. Resistance exists at $79,107. The 20-day moving average is $81,022, while the 50-day moving average is $81,906. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 46, which is neutral.

The Binance reserve report on November 3 and the MSCI decision on November 11 could drive price action. US midterm elections on November 3 and the jobs report on November 6 also matter. Will the Binance reimbursement plan stabilize the market before the MSCI decision on November 11? If the price stays above the October 30 low of $76,141, it could trade in the $76,000 to $82,000 range. A close below $76,141 could draw buyers toward the August 23 low of $75,538 and the support at $74,900. If Bitcoin surpasses resistance at $79,107 and closes above its 50-day average, it could aim for the $86,489 high from October 4. Bitcoin-backed lending could reach $100 billion in 2026, which Sidney Powell says reduces selling pressure. However, long-term holder distribution remains a factor for analysts like Iliya Kalchev.