Bitcoin $78,000 floor and the SOPR profit-taking signal

The Spent Output Profit Ratio has stayed above the break-even level of 1 for three full weeks, a streak that is the longest of 2026. This profitability run began on August 19, and the most recent reading is 1.002. The $1.03 billion of realized profit logged on October 8 is the second-highest daily figure for 2026, occurring after a price climb to $87,000 that met significant supply from holders sitting on gains. This burst of selling happened as the price slid from $87,000 toward $81,000. The $1.03 billion realized on October 8 is only slightly below the yearly peak of $1.04 billion. I observe that the market is currently processing a massive amount of profit-taking after the recent price fluctuations.

Holder cohorts and the 155-day split

The 155-day threshold separates Bitcoin users into two distinct groups. Short-term holders include investors who purchased coins within the last 155 days. Long-term holders include everyone older than that. This age split defines the behavior of the market. The probability that a coin moves falls steeply during those first few months. You already know how these on-chain metrics function, so I will focus on the specific data points defining this October volatility. On September 7, the indicator for short-term holders was 1.012, while the long-term holder metric was 1.138. The long-term holder group shows even higher profitability, with a weekly average of 1.25 and a monthly average of 1.16. These levels exceed the annual average of 1.10.

This divergence between groups clarifies the current market structure. In early June, long-term holders realized $2.4 billion in losses over a 48-hour window when the LTH-SOPR fell below 1. That period coincided with a price bottom of $58,035 on June 25. Since then, the long-term holders have moved coins at an average realized gain of roughly 10% over the past year. Short-term holders behave differently during corrections. In April, many short-term holders sold at a loss during a 30% price correction. Currently, the short-term holder cohort is in a state of profit, but their unrealized profit reached $9.07 billion on September 4 before falling to $7.5 billion.

Price levels and the resistance zone

The Bitcoin price is currently testing the $78,000 resistance zone after a period of consolidation. I see that the asset held near $77,400 as it approached this decision area. The recent movement from $87,000 down to $81,000 follows a massive rally that saw Bitcoin touch $94,900 earlier in the year. This recent volatility follows a pattern where Bitcoin experienced a 30% correction between January and early April.

The market is fighting to maintain support between $76,000 and $77,000. If the price fails to hold the $76,500 level, it could drop toward $74,000 or even the macro support at $73,300. The October 8 price drop also involved $520 million in long liquidations and $702 million in US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows. Traders watch the $78,000 area to see if buyers can absorb the supply. Will the market absorb the $9.07 billion in unrealized profit held by short-term whales before the next correction?

Evaluating MVRV and SOPR together

I evaluate the market by looking at the relationship between MVRV and SOPR. MVRV compares market capitalization to realized capitalization, which is the aggregate cost basis of the whole supply. MVRV is a thermometer for latent selling pressure that has not yet materialized. In contrast, SOPR is a record of behavior for the coins that actually moved on-chain. When MVRV is high, unrealized profits are large, which increases the incentive to sell. SOPR tells me the actual margin the sellers achieved.

A reading of 1.0 on the SOPR line means the sellers broke even. In a bull market, the SOPR often dips toward 1 and then recovers as buyers step in. In a bear market, the ratio tends to poke above 1 and then fade as sellers exit at breakeven. David Puell notes that the market needs to produce a series of higher highs and higher lows to confirm a change in the long-term trend. He also warns that the price could still hit new macro lows this cycle if the profitability streak does not hold. I conclude that the $78,000 level is a functional floor for the current regime, but the massive profit realization in October suggests the market is fighting heavy supply from long-term holders.